Odds on for a hot summer
After two damaging damp squibs in a row, this year is 'odds on for a barbecue summer', according to long-range forecasts from the Met Office.
Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than usual and rainfall near or below average, said Chief Meteorologist, Ewen McCallum. He added: "The signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."
Mr McCallum noted that predictions of a hot summer overall didn't rule out the occasional heavy downpour, but said a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
Government Services Director, Rob Varley, said: "Our long-range forecasts are proving useful to a range of people, such as emergency planners and the water industry, in order to help them plan ahead. They are not forecasts which can be used to plan a summer holiday or inform an outdoor event."
The Met Office works with the Environment Agency, SEPA, the NHS and others across government to ensure the country is ready to meet the challenges that severe weather may present.
What can we say about this season?
Rainfall
For the UK and much of northern Europe rainfall is likely to be near or below average. A repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
Average or below-average rainfall is also likely over eastern Europe.
What do we mean by average rainfall?
We base our average rainfall on measurements over the whole season for the years 1971-2000. The UK average for June to August is 227 mm.
Temperature
For the UK and much of Europe temperatures are likely to be above average.
What do we mean by average temperature?
As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 1971–2000 is 14.1 °C.
07.05.09
